Theos-Talk Archives (January 1997 Message tl00467)

The extent to which skill and luck determine results could be graphed.  The
horizontal axis would be time, and the vertical axis would be the extent to
which luck determines success.  The graph would be a curve entirely in the
upper right quadrant which asymptotically approaches the vertical axis
going up, curves down and to the right, and asymptotically approaches the
horizontal axis going to the right.  It is always a mixture of the two, and
the more time that is involved, the less luck plays a part.  

I base my idea of karma on this.  In the short run, there are all kinds of
fluctuations from justice, but in the long run, people tend to get what
they deserve.  In the short run, results are predominantly determined by
circumstances.  In the long run, they are determined primarily by
character.  I was a professional gambler for many years.  One of the most
crucial qualities for success in such a venture is the ability to look past
short-term results and to keep one's eye on the underlying probabilities,
confident that long-term results will approach those probabilities.    

Individuals are responsible for their results only to the extent that they
are determined by skill.  No one is responsible for luck.  A few years ago,
4 fire fighters died in an arson fire in Seattle.  The local prosecutor
wanted to charge the arsonist with murder.  But, since most fires do not
directly lead to any deaths, it was almost entirely luck that these deaths
accidentally occurred.  Theoretically, every arsonist should be charged for
the probability that the fires they started would result in deaths, based
on an average of all such fires.  If 6 people point loaded guns at 6
different people, if one gun misfires, and if the other 5 people who are
shot die, each of the 6 intended shooters are 5/6 responsible for a death.
Assuming failed attempts at murder are due to luck rather than to
incompetence, I fail to see why attempted murder should be considered to be
any less of a crime than murder.  The intent and the probability of death
are the same.